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On the surface, it may seem simple — global stocks are rallying, so there must be one universal driver, right? When this happens, the yen should strengthen and improve shareholder value in Japanese stocks, Arone said. "All of that gives you the ingredients you need to push stocks higher — not only U.S. stocks, but global stocks — in the next 12 months or so," he said. "I think that international stocks — Japan, Europe — have more room to go. Similar to Kelly, Kleintop recommended a more broad-based approach to playing this global rally.
Persons: It's, Charles Schwab's, Jeffrey Kleintop, they've, David Kelly, Michael Arone, Kelly, Arone, , Kleintop, Fred Imbert Organizations: U.S, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Nikkei, CNBC, Nvidia, Asset Management, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Tokyo Stock Exchange, State, Locations: United States, U.S, Europe, Japan, Korea, China, Asia, America, Eastern Europe, — Japan
Yen near 10-week low, dollar buoyant as traders adjust rate bets
  + stars: | 2024-02-09 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The yen wallowed near a 10-week low on Friday, while the dollar ground towards a fourth weekly advance as traders dialed back bets on how quickly the Bank of Japan, or BOJ, will raise interest rates and how soon the Federal Reserve will cut them. The yen wallowed near a 10-week low on Friday, while the dollar ground towards a fourth weekly advance as traders dialed back bets on how quickly the Bank of Japan, or BOJ, will raise interest rates and how soon the Federal Reserve will cut them. The yen was little changed at 149.315 per dollar in early Asian trading, after dipping to 149.48 late in the previous session for the first time since Nov. 27. Both currencies have been relatively resilient with officials from the European Central Bank and Bank of England pushing back against market wagers on early rate reductions. New Zealand's dollar gained 0.34% to $0.6117, supported by bets for a delayed start to Reserve Bank rate cuts - or even the potential for further hikes - after data this week showed a stronger-than-forecast jobs market.
Persons: Shinichi Uchida, Shunichi Suzuki, Jerome Powell, FOMC, Richard Franulovich, Sharon Zollner, bitcoin Organizations: Bank of Japan, Federal Reserve, BOJ, Japanese Finance, Traders, European Central Bank and Bank of England, Reserve, ANZ Locations: Tokyo
U.S. Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. Deutsche Bank's CVIX (.DBCVIX) - the currency market's version of Wall St's "fear index" of stock volatility and a weighted average of implied "vol" in nine major pairings - has basically imploded. By driving short-term dollar cash rates and U.S. bond yields higher over the past 20 months, the Fed basically sucked cash from the wider investment world and supercharged dollar exchange rates everywhere. Now that it looks done, the buck's finally on the back foot - plumbing levels not seen since August. With implied volatility directionally biased, the dollar index and the CVIX are typically well correlated and both peaked in tandem in same month of September last year.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Deutsche Bank's, Chris Turner, Francesco Pesole, BOJ, BOE, Marcelli, Morgan Stanley, Matthew Hornbach, David Evans Organizations: REUTERS, Deutsche, U.S, ING, Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank and Bank of England, ECB, UBS Global Wealth, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Ukraine, U.S . Federal, Japan, U.S
Morning Bid: Stocks clocking best week of the year
  + stars: | 2023-11-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., October 27, 2023. The U.S. October employment report out later on Friday caps a hectic two weeks of central bank decisions, company updates and unnerving geopolitics. As the first major marker of U.S. economic strength in the final quarter of the year, the payrolls report packs a punch despite expected strike-related distortions. The interest rate relief this week is pervasive, however, as the Fed, ECB and BoE all paused tightening and U.S. Treasury debt sales worries ebbed somewhat. U.S. Treasury (.MOVE) and equity market (.BIX) volatility gauges have subsided to their lowest levels since early last month.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, BoE, ebbed, Antony Blinken, Sam Bankman, Fried, Michael Barr, Neel Kashkari, Huw Pill, Emelia Sithole Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Mike, U.S, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of England, Apple, Fed, ECB, Treasury, U.S . Treasury, Labor Department, Eversource Energy, Cardinal Health, Dominion Energy, Gartner, Church, Dwight, AMC, Liberty Media, Icahn Enterprises, Federal, Bank of England, Israel Productivity, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Isreal, Gaza, Gaza City, Canada, Minneapolis, Israel
Asia-Pacific stock benchmarks sagged along with gold, while crude oil continued to drift back from 10-month highs. Westpac strategists see risks skewed toward even higher yields in the near term, pulling up the dollar as well. "We expect 10yr yields to establish a new, higher, yield range in coming weeks," with a possible peak around 4.75%, they said. The European Central Bank and Bank of England have also touted higher rates for longer in policy meetings since the middle of the month. Crude oil remained weak amid concerns that fuel demand will be crimped by major central banks holding interest rates higher for longer, even with supply expected to be tight.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Hong, HSI, Austan Goolsbee, Sterling, Gold, Kevin Buckland, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Rights, Treasury, Federal Reserve, U.S, Tokyo's Nikkei, Traders, Westpac, Chicago Fed, Fed, European Central Bank and Bank of England, Brent, U.S . West Texas, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Asia, Pacific, Japan, Britain
Morning Bid: Edgy market calm after worst day of 2023
  + stars: | 2023-09-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
The exterior of the Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building is seen in Washington, D.C., U.S., June 14, 2022. World stocks captured by MSCI's all-country index (.MIWD0000PUS) recorded their worst day of the year so far - dropping 1.69%. The yen fell back again but the dollar/yen rate remained below Thursday's 2023 high of 148.45. The pound hit its lowest level since March and 10-year British gilt yields fell to their lowest level since July. Elsewhere, oil prices nudged higher again on Friday as concerns that a Russian ban on fuel exports could tighten global.
Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Mike Dolan Punch, Rupert Murdoch, Lisa Cook, Susan Collins, Neel Kashkari, Mary Daly Organizations: Eccles Federal Reserve, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Bank of Japan, Fed, European Central Bank and Bank of England, Treasury, Sterling, of, Activision Blizzard, Markets Authority, Ubisoft, Cisco Systems, Cisco, Fox Corp, News Corp, JPMorgan, Federal Reserve, Boston, Minneapolis Fed, San Francisco Fed, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Washington ,, U.S, Australia, Britain, United States, India
BENGALURU, July 6 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar will hold its ground against most major currencies for the rest of the year despite expectations of narrowing interest rate differentials as the U.S. economy stays resilient, according to FX strategists polled by Reuters. "The tightness of the U.S. labour market may help the economy and the dollar in the very short term," said Kit Juckes, chief FX strategist at Societe Generale. "Even if we see (interest) rate convergence, it seems unlikely a new major euro uptrend will start without stronger growth." Indeed, a majority of common contributors showed the dollar view against most major currencies for the coming six months has been either upgraded or kept unchanged from a month ago. "The dollar is getting a tailwind from the Fed ... the current strength is on a repricing of the Fed (rate) higher," said John Hardy, head of FX strategy at Saxo Bank.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Kit Juckes, Jonas Goltermann, Sterling, John Hardy, Indradip Ghosh, Shaloo Srivastava, Sarupya Ganguly, Anitta Sunil, Veronica Khongwir, Hari Kishan, Ross Finley, Matthew Lewis Organizations: U.S, Reuters, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of England, Societe Generale, Futures Trading Commission, Capital Economics, Saxo Bank, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, U.S, Europe, Asia, Britain, Bengaluru
Morning Bid: Fed turns screw, Micron pops
  + stars: | 2023-06-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
But as investors hit the half-year mark tomorrow, the tightening credit environment tempered fresh risk-taking. Two-year Treasury yields crept higher to 4.77% on Thursday after all the news, with the dollar (.DXY) firmer too and S&P500 futures marginally positive - helped by Micron. The VIX (.VIX) volatility gauge remains subdued at 13.6. Powell's relative hawkishness was mostly matched by counterparts at the European Central Bank and Bank of England yesterday. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Persons: Mike Dolan, Jerome Powell's, Powell, Riksbank, Jerome Powell, Raphael Bostic, Paychex, Elaine Hardcastle Organizations: Federal Reserve, Micron, European Central Bank and Bank of England, Atlanta Fed, Nike, McCormick, Paychex Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, Asia, Europe, Japan, China, Madrid, Dublin, Brussels
Europe markets open higher after U.S. debt ceiling deal
  + stars: | 2023-05-29 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
Sectors were all cautiously higher or flat, with autos and banks leading gains. European stock markets opened higher Monday after U.S. President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy reached a deal to raise the nation's debt ceiling. U.S. political leaders must now gather enough bipartisan support to pass the debt ceiling bill in Congress before the June 5 deadline to avoid a federal default. Asia-Pacific markets were mixed even as Japan's Nikkei 225 climbed to trade at the highest levels since July 1990. Elsewhere, the Turkish lira slumped to a near-record low after incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan secured reelection.
“I’m more concerned than I’ve been in a long time,” said Matt Anderson, managing director at Trepp, which provides data on commercial real estate. About $270 billion in commercial real estate loans held by banks will come due in 2023, according to Trepp. Questions about the health of banks with sizable exposures to commercial real estate loans cause customers to pull deposits. That forces lenders to demand repayment — exacerbating the sector’s downturn and further damaging the banks’ financial position. The likeliest outcome is thought to be an uptick in defaults and reduced access to funding for the commercial real estate industry.
Asian markets could rebound on Tuesday from their sluggish start to the week, after a deal to buy the assets of stricken U.S. bank Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) prompted a relief rally in financials and allayed fears of deeper systemic stress. Treasury's sale of $43 billion five-year notes on Tuesday and $35 billion of seven-year notes on Wednesday will be worth monitoring. There are no central bank policy decisions on Tuesday, but investors can expect a slew of headlines from central bank officials around the world to hit their screens. In Asia, Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda gives a speech, and finance ministers and central bank governors of the ASEAN nations attend a three-day summit in Bali. European Central Bank and Bank of England chiefs Christine Lagarde and Andrew Bailey head a raft of European policymaker events.
AMERICAS Bank stress, bond volatility and disinflation
  + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
But the implications of this sudden bout of financial instability - and its potential economic and policy fallout - were most clearly seen in the interest rate and bond markets. Implied terminal rates for the European Central Bank and Bank of England have been dramatically scaled back too - though one or two further hikes are still priced for those central banks. But the Fed rethink has led to seismic action on the U.S. Treasury market, with the biggest drop in 2-year Treasury yields on Monday since the stock market crash of 1987. Credit spreads in the corporate bond markets have also widened sharply as investors fear an economy-wide tightening of borrowing standards and financial conditions. It would certainly think twice about tightening policy again into this level of financial stress and bond market upheaval.
Morning Bid: Bank stress, bond volatility and disinflation
  + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
But the implications of this sudden bout of financial instability - and its potential economic and policy fallout - were most clearly seen in the interest rate and bond markets. Implied terminal rates for the European Central Bank and Bank of England have been dramatically scaled back too - though one or two further hikes are still priced for those central banks. But the Fed rethink has led to seismic action on the U.S. Treasury market, with the biggest drop in 2-year Treasury yields on Monday since the stock market crash of 1987. Credit spreads in the corporate bond markets have also widened sharply as investors fear an economy-wide tightening of borrowing standards and financial conditions. It would certainly think twice about tightening policy again into this level of financial stress and bond market upheaval.
Startup investors are increasingly warning of an apocalyptic scenario in the VC world — namely, the emergence of "zombie" VC firms that are struggling to raise their next fund. Life becomes harder for zombie firms in a higher interest rate environment, as it increases their borrowing costs. Investors expect this gloomy economic backdrop to create a horde of zombie funds that, no longer producing returns, instead focus on managing their existing portfolios — while preparing to eventually wind down. "There are definitely zombie VC firms out there. "We're going to see a lot more zombie venture capital firms this year," Steve Saraccino, founder of VC firm Activant Capital, told CNBC.
If this continues, liquidity from Japan will continue to support global markets," he adds. The BOJ flow in January outstripped the combined liquidity drain from the Fed, European Central Bank and Bank of England, resulting in a G4 net liquidity provision of $115.3 billion. Operations from the ECB and, most notably, the PBOC, have helped pour around $1 trillion of liquidity into the global financial system in recent months. As Citi's King says, when changes in even the least significant line items on central bank balance sheets are measured in the hundreds of billions of dollars, "they should command investors' respect." Related columns:- U.S. debt ceiling saga softens Fed's QT- Bank of Japan shock raises 2023 global liquidity risksBy Jamie McGeever; Editing by Paul SimaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Government bonds, which typically perform well when there is a dash for safe havens, sold off under intense pressure. The dollar rose to an almost one-month high of 132.85 yen while the euro fell 0.64% to $1.0726. Chinese equities fell on Monday, while the offshore yuan touched a one-month low against the dollar. European Central Bank and Bank of England policymakers will also be making appearances. Gold edged higher, with investors banking on the precious metal's safe-haven appeal as concerns about an economic slowdown linger.
Morning Bid: Fed fillip, double trouble, triple A
  + stars: | 2023-02-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
It looks less like fighting the Fed, than a mild disagreement. Powell didn't endorse that market view - which now has just one more quarter point rise to a terminal rate under 4.9% by May and 40 basis points of cuts from there by December. But he seemed ambivalent about investors' more optimistic take on disinflation and indicated the central bank was increasingly keeping its options open about a 'couple of hikes'. Meta's stock boomed as its earnings update showed stricter cost controls and a new $40 billion share buyback. With the risk around the BoE's split monetary policy council for a smaller quarter point move, it was the euro that looks set to emerge the winner of the three big central bank events.
European markets are heading for a positive open as investors digested the latest move by the U.S. Federal Reserve and look ahead to more decisions by central banks in Europe. The Fed raised its benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point on Wednesday and gave little indication it is nearing the end of this hiking cycle. The move marked the eighth increase in a process that began in March 2022. The Fed wants the rate hikes to bring down U.S. inflation which, despite recent signs of slowing, is still running near its highest level since the early 1980s. On Thursday, investors in Europe will be focused on the latest monetary policy decisions from the European Central Bank and Bank of England.
Corporate finance executives looking to cut their debt costs this year are likely to find one popular tool isn’t as attractive as it was when the Federal Reserve was aggressively raising interest rates in 2022. Under a cross-currency swap, a company exchanges principal and interest payments on its debt into another currency. Swaps can lose their appeal to companies when the gap between interest rates in two countries, or central banks, narrows. Corporate advisers said they expect cross-currency swap volumes to decline in the months ahead, assuming market expectations for future rate increases hold steady. That rule made it easier for companies to use cross-currency swaps and recognize the interest savings on their financial statements.
SINGAPORE, Feb 1 (Reuters) - The dollar was broadly flat against major currencies on Wednesday ahead of an eagerly-awaited Federal Reserve policy decision that investors hope will signal the end of the U.S. central bank's interest rate hiking cycle. "Recent progress on inflation has encouraged market participants to expect the Fed to quickly pivot from interest rate hikes to interest rate cuts," said Carol Kong, currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. Since signs of labour market loosening were limited, the Fed would likely pair a smaller rate hike this week with hawkish communication, she said. The Fed raised interest rates by 50 bps in December after four successive 75 bps hikes. It said then that interest rates might need to be higher for longer to tame inflation.
A screen displays the Fed rate announcement as a trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), November 2, 2022. Brendan McDermid | ReutersThe U.S. Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of England are all expected to hike interest rates once again this week, as they make their first policy announcements of 2023. Economists will be watching policymakers' rhetoric closely for clues on the path of future rate hikes this year, as the three major central banks try to engineer a soft landing for their respective economies without allowing inflation to regain momentum. The market is now pricing in this eventuality, but the key question is what the FOMC will indicate about further rate hikes in 2023. "Fewer hikes might be needed if the recent weakening in business confidence captured by the survey data depresses hiring and investment more than we think, substituting for additional rate hikes," Mericle said.
Morning Bid: A quart and two halves
  + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan. February kicked off on Wednesday without too much trepidation about how all that will pan out. Before the Fed announcement, ADP releases its January private sector employment readout for last month and markets will also scan the December JOLTS job openings report. While markets await the 'Triple-A' of Big Tech releases on Thursday, Meta (META.O) is due to report later today and the dour news from elsewhere in the tech sector kept coming. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Dollar pauses ahead of Fed rate decision
  + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six major peers, fell 0.029% to 102.060. "Recent progress on inflation has encouraged market participants to expect the Fed to quickly pivot from interest rate hikes to interest rate cuts," said Carol Kong, currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. Since signs of labor market loosening were limited, the Fed would likely pair a smaller rate hike this week with hawkish communication, she said. The Fed increased interest rates by 50 basis points in December after four successive 75 bps rate hikes. It said then that interest rates might need to be higher for longer to tame inflation.
This is a make-or-break week for the stock market. Not only that, but a slate of mega-cap earnings from Apple, Amazon, and Alphabet are also due later this week. Any negative surprises could derail the January rally, Stockton said, and negate much of the recent recovery from 2022's vicious bear market. "We believe the rally rests on the shoulders of heavyweights Apple, Amazon, and Alphabet, which are showing softness today as the market anticipates their earnings," Stockton wrote. Better-than-expected earnings and the potential for a Fed pivot have fueled a sharp rebound in the stock.
Morning Bid: 'Soft landing' or 'no landing'?
  + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
As U.S. Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee kicks off its two-day policymaking meeting, the economic news from around the world brightened considerably. China's economic activity swung back to growth in January after three months of contraction, according to official business surveys released on Tuesday. The euro zone economy confounded forecasts for a quarterly contraction of gross domestic product in the final three months of 2022. Eurostat estimated GDP in the bloc rose 0.1% in Q4 despite consensus expectations for a fall of 0.1%. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
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